Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 18, 2025
At midday today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) maintained a weak and fluctuating trend. It opened at 263,340 yuan/mt, dropping back slightly from the settlement price of the previous trading day, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 262,000-264,000 yuan/mt. Trading in the spot market was sluggish, with downstream procurement mainly driven by immediate needs and a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Regarding LME tin, overnight LME tin closed at $32,500/mt, up 0.78%. Technically, it was under pressure near the MA60 daily average, with an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the short term.
High Prices Suppress Procurement: After spot tin prices rebounded to around 260,000 yuan/mt, downstream acceptance of high prices was limited. The spot market only maintained transactions based on immediate needs, with traders reporting daily trading volumes of less than 10 mt.
Disturbances from the US Fed's Interest Rate Meeting: The market has largely digested expectations that the US Fed will maintain interest rates, but the hawkish or dovish tone of the policy statement may trigger US dollar fluctuations, indirectly suppressing metal risk appetite. In addition, recurring geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East (such as the Hormuz Strait incident) have exacerbated fluctuations in crude oil and energy-related commodity prices, but their direct impact on tin prices is limited.
US Dollar Index Fluctuations: Expectations for US Fed policies and progress in the US-UK trade agreement affect the US dollar's trend. If the US dollar rebounds, it will suppress LME tin prices denominated in US dollars. Conversely, if inflation data weaken rate hike expectations, tin prices may get a reprieve.
LME Tin Outlook: LME tin is under short-term technical pressure, but low inventory and supply disturbances limit downside room. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of $31,000-33,000/mt. It is recommended to monitor Indonesia's export data and changes in macro sentiment.
The current tin market presents a pattern of "strong supply support and weak demand reality," with both SHFE tin and LME tin lacking momentum for a unilateral breakthrough.
